The Curious Case of Jordan Nwora
Jordan Nwora sits in NBA limbo, not technically a Milwaukee Buck at the moment but very much tied to the franchise. Here are all the options currently on the table.
Jordan Nwora has not been signed by any team, but his qualifying offer is still extended so he’s tied to Milwaukee. What exactly is going on here, and what are the options for both sides from this point?
It turns out fully explaining Nwora’s situation and options as a restricted free agent took more words and time than I thought, so if you’re not interested in the deep dive here’s an abridged version: it seems likely there’s one or more Nwora suitors out there given he’s still chilling in restricted free agency and Jon Horst’s comments on his situation, but he may end up having to wait until a Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell trade for said suitor to make their move and either sign-and-trade for him or sign him to an offer sheet. He could also sign the qualifying offer at any time to remain with the Bucks.
Now, for the long version with all of the details. I’ll start by publicly taking the L on predicting what would happen with Nwora – my assumption before the offseason began was that if the Bucks successfully ran it back with their rotation players like they ended up doing this summer, Nwora would be cut loose and allowed to sign elsewhere to pursue a bigger role that simply doesn’t seem present for him in Milwaukee.
Despite flashes of offensive brilliance (and one of the best Bucks taunts of all time), Nwora was not an everyday player by the end of the 2021-22 season despite getting more minutes than ever due to the flux of a short rest season still impacted by COVID-19. Nwora logged 62 games, 13 starts, and played 19 minutes per game, which all appear to be legit role player numbers.
However, when you dive deeper into Nwora’s season, it becomes clear those numbers are inflated by logging a ton of minutes in games the Bucks simply punted. Nwora logged 40 minutes in five different games last season: three with none of Milwaukee’s Big Three active (not counting the 8 seconds Jrue Holiday played in Game 82), one with Jrue actually playing against New Orleans, and one with Jrue and Khris Middleton playing against the Raptors.
On the flip side of those big minutes games, Nwora didn’t play at all in 18 games where he was not marked as inactive (per basketball-reference) and logged another 14 games where he played less than 10 minutes. Milwaukee’s chaotic season affected every Buck in some sense, and with Nwora it’s clear that his opportunities expanded and shrank widely due to circumstances outside of his control.
The bad news is that despite opportunities to get real run, Nwora did not solidify himself enough to play by the end of the season and in the playoffs when the Bucks were healthy. When Brook Lopez returned to action, allowing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to play more forward minutes, Nwora only played when other Bucks sat out.
Milwaukee retained all of the free agents who played ahead of Nwora already, and added in MarJon Beauchamp and Joe Ingles, who likely would also slot in ahead of him, although Beauchamp is a rookie and Ingles won’t be healthy to start the season. Even given those caveats, it would seem that the 23-year-old Nwora shouldn’t expect much playing time if he re-signs with Milwaukee.
Maybe that’s why he hasn’t! The ball has been in Nwora’s court, so to speak, for several weeks now. Milwaukee tendered him a qualifying offer worth slightly more than $2 million on June 29, according to Eric Nehm. For many young players, the QO (qualifying offer) is nothing more than a procedural step ahead of re-signing with their current team, as any team wanting to get first dibs at re-signing their own player in restricted free agency (given that they qualify for it) needs to first offer a QO.
The qualifying offer was introduced into the NBA CBA as basically a one-year deal that functions as an escape valve for a young player dissatisfied with their current team to get out sooner rather than having to re-up on a long second contract. For players drafted in the first round or who hit certain starter criteria, the qualifying offer can be much higher than Nwora’s – Collin Sexton, for example, may well end up signing his $7.2 million qualifying offer to hit unrestricted free agency next season if the Cavs don’t offer him a contract he finds suitable.
Nwora’s situation seems less contentious, especially given Jon Horst’s recent comments to Eric Nehm about Nwora’s continued restricted free agency.
“We have a great relationship with Jordan. Jordan is with us every day. He’s working. He’s committed to being better. He’s having a great offseason. I think he would tell you he is having the best offseason he’s ever had.”
Horst goes on to mention several options for Nwora, including sign-and-trades (the first one Horst brought up *eye emojis*), offers, matches, and accepting qualifying offers. Let’s go through all of them to figure out what could happen with Nwora before the start of next season.
Sign-and-Trade
Going into this offseason and really until Horst said this, I did not factor a sign-and-trade into the realistic outcomes of Jordan Nwora’s free agency.
It’s not because the Bucks can’t do it – while Milwaukee cannot receive a player via sign-and-trade because of the hard cap it would trigger (which Milwaukee has no realistic path to ducking under), it can send one out no problem. With 14 roster spots filled, the Bucks would likely be taking back just one player or none at all, but it is worth noting Milwaukee could legally have more than 15 players under contract since the roster is bigger during the offseason before it shrinks at the start of the regular season. Still, given the tax bill implications, I would guess Milwaukee is not taking back multiple players in a Nwora sign-and-trade.
The issue I saw with a sign-and-trade is with the other team in question, who would have to value Nwora highly enough to send something back to Milwaukee for him newly signed to a contract lasting at least three seasons, although only the first one has to be fully guaranteed. Said team also couldn’t be over the apron or have already used their taxpayer MLE if they sign-and-trade for Nwora, which rules out a significant number of teams from the jump.
Fortunately, given his age and relatively unproven nature as a prospect, this mostly rules out playoff teams who would be in a similar position to the Bucks and likely not have minutes to develop him anyway. Teams like the Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons have cap space and could add Nwora via sign-and-trade with no worries of the hard cap, as could a handful of other teams well below the hard cap including the Grizzlies, Knicks, Rockets, Magic, and Jazz. That latter group of teams would all have to send salary back to the Bucks or absorb Nwora into an exception though, since they are over the cap.
UPDATE: Thanks to excellent Indiana Pacers reporter and podcaster Tony East (who you should definitely be following) for pointing out that in addition to taking back some sort of asset in a Nwora sign-and-trade, if Milwaukee sends Nwora without taking back any players they’d also get a trade exception for the value of the contract he signs that could prove useful over the next year.
Offer (and Match)
Teams – especially Indiana and San Antonio, who still have a roster spot open – could also just sign Nwora to an offer sheet. This may be less desirable than a sign-and-trade for teams who want Nwora, as they run the risk of not getting the player due to their original team matching, as the Pacers just went through (albeit on a much larger scale) with Deandre Ayton.
Nwora’s first year salary in any offer sheet is limited by the Gilbert Arenas provision to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in year one since the Bucks have his early bird rights, but this shouldn’t matter as he likely wasn’t commanding eight figures annually anyway.
That provision does mean that Milwaukee should be able to match any offer sheet Nwora signs if they care to – early bird rights allow you to sign a player to a deal up to 105% of the average annual salary in year 1, a number which the Bucks should be familiar with as they just signed Bobby Portis to the biggest possible deal starting with that figure.
It seems unlikely Nwora would approach that number in free agency, given both the market for such an unproven player and the harsh reality that most of the league’s spending power has dried up at this point. Outside of the three cap space teams named earlier, Nwora is limited to any bi-annual or non-taxpayer mid-level exceptions that are still out there, or simply taking veteran minimum, if he signs an offer sheet.
The Bucks may seriously consider matching an offer that is exceptionally team-friendly – after all, they extended the QO for a reason, right?
Accepting the Qualifying Offer
This option has been there for Nwora for nearly a month now, and will be there for the rest of the offseason if he wants it to be. The Bucks had until July 13 to pull the QO without Nwora’s consent and they didn’t, so now at any point, if he feels he has no better options, he can simply sign up to be a Buck for next season and make a bit more than $2 million before entering unrestricted free agency next season.
Horst was not just speaking platitudes when he mentioned having a good relationship with Nwora and his agent, as extending the qualifying offer past the date of being able to unilaterally pull it gives Nwora a security blanket he wouldn’t have had otherwise if he got this far into free agency without signing a deal.
It’s not an entirely generous move by the Bucks, who stand to either keep Nwora or get something back if another team is interested in adding him but afraid of Milwaukee matching their offer sheet. But whether it’s wanting something in return or wanting Nwora, it is clear the Bucks see real value in him this offseason, enough to risk a substantial increase to the luxury tax bill for the season if he isn’t traded before the season ends.
Speaking of that possibility, if Nwora does sign the qualifying offer he would have an implicit no-trade clause for the season – a CBA quirk present for players on a one-year deal whose teams would stand to have bird rights on the player after the season. Accepting any trade would be damaging to Nwora’s earning power in this specific situation, as he would effectively lose bird rights and need to be signed to a cap exception or via cap space the next time he enters free agency.
Nwora can also negotiate a contract with the Bucks in lieu of signing the qualifying offer, if he wanted more salary or years than the one-year, $2 million QO. That obviously requires negotiating and is not a one-way street like simply signing the qualifying offer would be.
It is also technically an option for Nwora to not sign the qualifying offer through next season to remain a free agent, but frankly that’s not something we have seen any player do in quite a while and it’s not really worth considering as a serious possibility.
Prediction 2.0
It seems likely that Nwora/the Bucks feel that there’s at least one suitor out there who’s interested enough to either sign him to an offer sheet or offer Milwaukee a sign-and-trade proposal, unless the two sides are still negotiating terms of a deal. Given the Bucks just re-signed Wes Matthews and Jevon Carter to essentially vet minimum deals, it seems doubtful Milwaukee would be open to signing Nwora to much more than his current QO, so I’m going to guess there’s a mystery team out there.
Jordan Nwora might be essentially with the rest of us NBA fans for now, waiting to see what happens with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Donovan Mitchell. Whether it’s a team keeping their powder dry to get involved in trades including those stars or Utah/Brooklyn looking to take a flier on a young player as they rebuild after trading away their star(s), Nwora’s fate may be on hold until the biggest chess pieces make their moves.
My specific guess: the Utah Jazz trade a second round pick to Milwaukee to absorb Jordan Nwora into one of their trade exceptions after executing a Donovan Mitchell trade that leaves them needing scoring as they tank for Victor Wembanyama.