The AJ Dillon Conundrum

AJ Dillon's struggles so far this Green Bay Packers season haven't done anything to quiet his perilous future

A contract year creates expectations for a player in any sport. It’s put up or shut up time when knowing that your play in said season goes a long way in determining your next contract. It’s human nature for those expectations to wear on anyone, regardless of their talent and importance to their team.

That takes us to AJ Dillon and the Green Bay Packers. The fourth-year running back has been long thought of as the thunder to Aaron Jones, who, of course, is the Packers’ lightning. Dillon’s tenure in Green Bay has been built on the promise that he and Jones can form a 1-2 punch that can help the duo assert themselves as the best running back tandem in the league. And at times, however brief, that has come to fruition.

Through the Packers’ first three games this NFL season, Dillon’s been a shell of himself and clearly a negative contributor to a Packers offense that has been stuck in mud when it comes to making plays on the ground. Especially after serving up another paltry performance of 11 carries for 33 yards in the Packers’ comeback 18-17 win over the Saints, thanks to Jordan Love’s heroics.

Dillon’s struggles have been so apparent that it was no surprise when the Packers were marching their fourth quarter comeback, it was Patrick Taylor, the Packers’ third-string running back, who earned more snaps down the stretch. Rewatch the Packers’ red zone drives down late and Taylor is the one out there making valuable chips to give Love time in the pocket and Taylor even got a carry on a goal-to-go situation before Love’s rushing TD that eventually put the score to 17-11 midway through the fourth.

Diving into Dillon’s raw numbers so far, and they aren’t pretty. 39 carries, 107 yards, and an average of 2.7 yards per carry. Only 1 of Dillon’s 39 carries has gone 10 yards or further. Taylor has matched that. So has Packers defensive back Keisean Nixon in his one offensive snap on the year. Jordan Love has the most 10-plus yard runs of any Packer with 2 so far this year.

It certainly hasn’t helped that Jones has played all of 2-ish quarters so far this season, and his status for the Packers’ Thursday night matchup against the Detroit Lions will be paramount for Green Bay to conquer their greatest threat to the division crown. Whatever hope that any Packers fan may have had about Dillon being able to take on lead back opportunities — or even be the Packers running back of the future — well, let’s just say that ship may have sailed past Dillon’s Door County residence.

But if Dillon wants to present a case for his defense, it’s that the Packers’ offensive line has done him little favors to find consistent daylight.

The number that helps Dillon’s case: Of his 107 rushing yards, 93 of those yards have come after contact, per Pro Football Focus. Only Rachaad White of Tampa Bay has a higher amount of negative rushing yards over expected than Dillon, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

In greater context, the Packers’ run blocking grade ranks 26th in the league, per PFF again. What little gaps there are for Dillon to attack have been swallowed up and he’s literally almost had to fight for every yard as a result. And it isn’t like Dillon has seen an overwhelming number of 8-man boxes either.

That probably goes without saying when you factor in that 3 of the Packers’ starting offensive linemen have been injured (Elgton Jenkins, Zach Tom) and/or have missed games (David Bakhtiari). Green Bay’s makeshift offensive line has done wonders in protecting Love and is a clear strength of this team moving forward.

But for a team that prioritizes establishing the run to open the passing game — especially with a pair of veteran running backs and a first-year starting quarterback — there are many things at play behind Dillon’s ineffectiveness as a runner. And it’s clear that it’s two-fold. A running back can only see the holes in front of him. If there are very few holes to attack, well, you have Dillon’s season performance to date.

With all of that said, the following clip shared by the great Packers podcaster, Andy Herman, might just encapsulate just how vexing it has been to watch Dillon this season.

https://twitter.com/AndyHermanNFL/status/1706284557383709061

If you can pardon the poor field position, Dillon’s field vision, or lack thereof, fails him when the Packers get the rare hole open up in the middle of the field for him to get to the second level of the defense. Instead, Dillon bounces outside to the C-gap and into the arms of Isaiah Foksey, who quickly shed the block attempt by Luke Musgrave.

The sorry state of the Packers’ rushing offense has only reinforced just how irreplaceable Aaron Jones is. Dillon might miss Jones the most to alleviate a workload and the role he is forced to play, but is still miscast all the same. Their offensive line has withstood a number of losses to integral pieces, but they have done little to ease the growing burden on Love’s shoulders to make this offense go.

Where it all leaves Dillon is quite clear in regards to this season. The Packers will unquestionably look to make things work for the Boston College product, whether it’s opening up running lanes and/or making sure that Dillon continues to attack gaps with a lower center of gravity, a big emphasis for him going into the season.

But in the end, all that Dillon is going to be judged on is producing. And right now, there is very little to judge that, with what’s in front of him, Dillon can be depended on to serve as a valuable complement to this Packers rushing attack.

Perhaps it’s diminishing returns or the product of having gone through the extraordinary changes this Packers offense has gone through where they have less distinguished weapons as well as new quarterback. But no matter what, excuses are running out for AJ Dillon. It very well might determine just how much longer his future in Green Bay will be.