Milwaukee Bucks Swing for the Fences With AJ Johnson
The Milwaukee Bucks didn't play it safe when they selected 19-year-old teenager AJ Johnson with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Leave it to the Milwaukee Bucks to come away with the selection that has drawn the most questions from the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft.
Not only did the Bucks stay where they were with the 23rd overall pick, but they selected 19-year-old combo guard AJ Johnson, who last played for the Illawarra Hawks in Australia’s National Basketball League. Even amid plenty of questions regarding the quality of this draft class, the Bucks made sure to swing for the fences by selecting Johnson where they did and when they did.
The questions are obvious and there are plenty of them. You could probably search on YouTube and practically see all of Johnson’s 239 minutes playing for the Hawks last season across all competitions. The raw tools that Johnson possesses, how much he has to physically develop, and the fact that he played so little in a league that stands a few steps down from the NBA are all factors that are too big to ignore.
It’s very clear that Johnson is a long-term project. For a team that clearly holds championship aspirations next season, Johnson will be low on the totem pole for helping realize that mission.
With superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Head Coach Doc Rivers — all of whom are wanting to win as soon as possible — Bucks General Manager Jon Horst will certainly hear criticism over his pick of Johnson moving forward. His lackluster draft history won’t help quiet critics either. When there are real holes along the Bucks’ roster and rotation minutes to be had alongside their core, Johnson is a hard sell to those that desired the Bucks taking a prospect who is more equipped to help now rather than later.
Knowing that the Bucks may circle back and find a player of that mold with the 33rd overall pick when the draft resumes Thursday afternoon may make Bucks fans feel better in the long run. But the Johnson pick still stands out for its own singular reasons.
Johnson comes to Milwaukee having gone through a basketball odyssey before he even reached the NBA. His amateur career is littered with stops in Fresno, Southern California and a brief dalliance with Kanye West’s now-closed Donda Academy. Going down to Australia and signing on as part of the NBL’s Next Stars Program gave Johnson a reality check well before he was ready to contribute. A strong showing at this year’s NBA Draft Combine gave him the springboard to find his next home. Hopefully it’s one that Johnson can settle into and find himself taking the next step in his career.
Nothing about Johnson’s path to the NBA has been perfect. The Bucks are taking a leap of faith that Johnson can eventually harness the potential he possesses and can turn into a positive contributor in the long run. It’s inspired, but the road for Johnson to achieve all of that is still long and treacherous.
The Bucks have made similar gambles before. It’s not really worth comparing Antetokounmpo to Johnson, though you can make the case for the physical development track they share before reaching the NBA.
Thon Maker might be more comparable to Johnson, especially as he bounced from prep school to prep school before being the first player to be selected out of high school in over a decade back in the 2016 NBA Draft. In the lottery at 10th overall, no less. But eventually, he was older than the competition he was playing against before entering the NBA and created quite a level of intrigue with viral clips. Maker was an oddity in ways that far exceed what Johnson is.
No matter how you frame it, this is Horst’s biggest swing of his time as GM.
This is his John Hammond moment. He’s going on hope and on the Bucks having a coaching staff and a development team that can help steer Johnson in the right direction. You don’t make a pick without having a vision and the people in place to make that reality. It will be fascinating to see how that is shared and displayed in the months and years to come. He’s taken a chance on a player who took a similarly circuitous route to the NBA with MarJon Beauchamp at 24th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft. Beauchamp will be among the few prospects looking to earn their stripes with Rivers next season as Beauchamp goes into year three.
The Bucks have missed on draft picks who had more of a track record than Johnson does from over their last decade of picks. No one has any idea what the future holds for a prospect as raw and inexperienced as Johnson is. It can either end in a stroke of genius if Johnson pans out or he falls in line with the number of draft picks the Bucks have made who passed on through Milwaukee with little to show for it. There is no in-between.