Milwaukee Bucks 2023 Offseason Primer

Here’s what you need to know about the Bucks’ options this summer

The NBA occupies an unusual place among sports leagues, as fans are obsessed with roster moves but often unaware of the rules put in place by the league’s CBA (collective bargaining agreement) that govern what moves can and cannot be made. Knowing CBA rules is extra important – and extra difficult – for fans of the Milwaukee Bucks this summer, as the new CBA is introducing rules that make it even harder for teams like the Bucks to operate due to their large payrolls.

The full 2023 CBA has yet to be released (it may actually not be totally finished yet) but bits and pieces of new rules from it have been reported. This article covers many of the new CBA rules, the CBA FAQ is technically outdated now but always a crucial resource to understanding the cap rules, Spotrac does outstanding work chronicling exact numbers for team cap sheets, and RealGM compiles an exhaustive catalogue of draft picks – these sites are my sources for the following walkthrough of what Jon Horst and his front office can do to best give new head coach Adrian Griffin a championship roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Milwaukee’s situation

We’ll get to the new “second apron” rules that will likely apply to the Bucks that are being rolled out over the next two seasons in a moment, but I think it’s important to start with some basics on the Bucks situation, to ensure everyone is on the same page.

The first thing to know is that the more an NBA team spends, the less resources they’re able to use to spend more, and the Bucks are big spenders. Even if you ignore Khris Middleton’s player option and Brook Lopez’ impending free agency for a moment and assume every other potential free agent is gone, Milwaukee still has $112 million in guaranteed contracts for the 2023-24 season between Giannis, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and MarJon Beauchamp.

The 2023-24 salary cap is set to be $134 million so even if the Bucks renounced the rights to all of those free agents they’d end up with less than $20 million in cap space once you factor in charges for having open roster spots – not nearly enough to replace the likes of Middleton, Lopez, Jevon Carter, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Wesley Matthews, etc. Cap space ain’t happening, to put it bluntly. Which means a whole host of restrictions will limit what Horst can do this summer.

The free agency rules

We already covered the Bucks won’t realistically have cap space to use, but you may be thinking they can still add a pricey free agent via sign-and-trade even without it. Unfortunately, that is also probably not an option. Teams cannot take back a player in a sign-and-trade if they’re above the first luxury tax apron ($7 million over the luxury tax, meaning the first apron hits at $169 million this season), meaning that it’s basically impossible for the Bucks to take back a premier player who is a free agent this summer, outside of their own players who they can exceed the cap to re-sign.

To prevent teams smartly first acquiring a sign-and-traded player and then re-signing a bunch of their own players, the league instituted a hard cap at that first apron for any team who receives a player in a sign-and-trade. This means teams can NEVER exceed the $169 million payroll mark if they get a sign-and-traded player, which is pretty untenable for Milwaukee given the large amount owed to just 6 returning players.

A new rule this CBA further limits what a team over either the first or second luxury tax apron (set at $179.5 million) can spend on free agents: teams between the first and second apron only get a $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception (the mechanism the Bucks used to sign Ingles without cap space last year), and teams above the second one don’t get a TPMLE at all.

The takeaway here is that in almost any realistic scenario, the Bucks will be limited to adding free agents willing to sign for cheap: either a paltry $5 million, or the veteran minimum, which depends on a player’s years of service but hovers around $2 million. The Bucks have had success with those contracts before and will need to find more diamonds in the rough this summer.

As previously mentioned, the big exceptions to the spending rules are Milwaukee’s own free agents. Assuming they do not hard cap themselves by taking a sign-and-traded player back, the only rule restricting the Bucks from re-signing their own players is the punitive tax payments ownership must make on every dollar above the tax line. There are three different categories of free agent on the Bucks roster subject to different restrictions on what they can be paid.

Full Bird Rights: Players who have logged three or more consecutive seasons without changing teams in free agency have bird rights, which essentially allow their incumbent team to pay them up to their maximum for up to five years (1 more than any other team can offer) even if their team is over the cap/tax. The Bucks have four players in this group, including: Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, and … Jae Crowder! That’s right, even though he’s only been a Buck for a few months, since Crowder was traded from the Suns after playing there for multiple seasons the Bucks have his bird rights too and can pay him freely over the cap.

Early Bird Rights: This is an example of the CBA getting weird. Players who have logged two consecutive seasons with a club can get 175% of their last salary OR 105% of the average annual salary as a starting point in a contract from that same team, which is how Bobby Portis went from two tiny deals to inking a four-year, $48 million deal last summer. There are two players eligible to be paid using this exception this time around: Wes Matthews and Jevon Carter.

Non-Bird Rights: Players who only have one consecutive season with a team get the least amount of flexibility in cap exceptions, as teams are limited to giving them up to 120% of what they made last season. This is not meaningful for players who earned veteran minimum last season like Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard since the vet min amount rises every year anyway, but it will actually enable the Bucks to make a competitive offer to Joe Ingles. The smart thing about signing Ingles to a one-year deal is it gave the Bucks the option to retain him for another contract worth up to a bit over $7 million next season, plus the flexibility to let him walk if they are so inclined.

FINALLY: apparently there’s going to be a third two-way contract slot on rosters starting next season, which is exciting for me as a Wisconsin Herd reporter and should be exciting to the Bucks too as they work to develop players to sustain their contending window and provide cheap depth.

Sparknotes version: The Bucks cannot really sign expensive free agents, but they can keep basically all of their own players if they really want to by utilizing various forms of bird rights. Otherwise, they’ll be using mostly minimum deals to fill out the roster.

The trade rules

As with free agency, the exact amount the Bucks end up spending will determine how strict the rules governing their trades are. Some basics for every team over the cap are that salaries have to “match” within a certain percentage, so the Bucks cannot just take back Stephen Curry for Grayson Allen (as much as we may want them to do that).

New this year: teams above either tax apron cannot take back more money than they send out in a deal. They still need to match the salary coming back, but now there’s a narrower window they must fit in. Teams above the second apron will also lose the ability to include cash in trades (most often seen when teams “buy” second round picks) and apparently will be unable to aggregate salary in trades, meaning they could only send out one player at a time.

Additionally, the final second apron trade rule is the most restrictive: a team cannot send their farthest trade-able draft pick (7 years out) in a deal, and if they exceed the apron in 2 of the next 4 seasons that pick is automatically moved to last in the first round regardless of where they finish.

Frankly, making a rule this unnecessarily punitive is one of the most cowardly moves I can recall ever seeing from a league in these kinds of agreements. Clearly, the NBA is trying hard to disincentivize teams doing something horrible like … spending money on their own players to win basketball games.

Some of these rules are not applicable until the 2024-25 season – it’s currently unclear which, but the draft pick freeze may be among them. Either way, the Bucks will only have one pick to deal this season thanks to the Stepien rule that bars them from trading picks in consecutive seasons and their previous traded picks.

The path this offseason

Given all of the various rules and restrictions we just covered, you may be wondering if there’s anything the Bucks can do. The answer thankfully is yes! If Milwaukee threads the needle and is able to complete the offseason without crossing into the second tax apron they’ll have a $5 million contract they could give to a free agent, plus veteran minimum deals and of course re-signing their own players.

On the trade front, the cupboard is depleted but not entirely bare. Milwaukee has its own second round pick this year (58th overall, the last pick); a 2024 second from Portland; and its own 2027 second round pick in addition to the Bucks 2029 first rounder. (Even if they exceed the second apron the Bucks can still trade this one – 7 years out will be 2030 in the upcoming league year.) Due to the previously-mentioned Stepien rule the Bucks will get to use (or trade, after the draft) a pick every other year as they only owe swaps in even years, but 2023 is a year where their pick is entirely gone.

They also have six to eight players under contract (pending Middleton and Carter player option decisions) that can be traded, which basically fall into four categories: Not Going Anywhere (Giannis); Massive Move (Jrue, Khris if he opts in); Roster Shake-Up (Allen, Portis, Connaughton, Carter if he opts in); and Young Core (literally just MarJon Beauchamp).

Any trade made must be close to a lateral move due to the lack of picks the Bucks have to offer, but thankfully none of their contracts should be viewed as negative value – Milwaukee isn’t trying to unload dead cap hits disguised as bad players, but instead has skilled players on relatively fair contracts. A big trade will likely require another team be high on the Bucks players going out given the sole first round pick able to be attached.

Run it back?

The realities of Milwaukee’s situation show why many Bucks fans are already speculating the team will or should mostly run it back even though the team flamed out in 5 games against an eighth seed in the first round.

In actuality there is a middle ground for the Bucks to take. Running back this whole roster feels like a mistake given how old many of the players are and how meekly they were ousted from the playoffs. However, given the spending mechanisms available, Milwaukee should certainly consider bringing back most of the Middleton/Lopez/Carter/Ingles/Crowder group, or at least try to find sign-and-trade possibilities involving them to recoup assets. Assuming the Bucks don’t tear down the team to open up meager cap space, each of those players allowed to walk and freely sign elsewhere represents a spending opportunity burned with no benefit gained back.

As far as trades there are basically two buckets: a landscape-shifting deal that sends one of Jrue or Khris out in exchange for a new perimeter player to pair with Giannis, or moves around the edges to re-tool using some combination of Allen/Portis/Connaughton’s money to add better-fitting role players around the edges, with the few draft picks and Beauchamp able to be added as sweeteners. I don’t think it’s wise to firmly believe the Bucks should pick one or the other avenue here: it all depends on what players are available.

The path ahead is fraught for the Bucks and Jon Horst, but he’s used to operating without many meaningful assets at his disposal the last few years, and having a bought-in superstar on the roster tends to help open up opportunities. If Giannis’ role in the Griffin hire is any indication, the Bucks superstar is not committed to the status quo and is willing to put his weight behind seismic changes in Milwaukee. Buckle up, folks.