Mad (at the Bucks’ start) Money: Taking a look at the early returns of the Bucks Stock Market

Through the first 14 games of the 2021-22 season the Milwaukee Bucks have not been great, which is reflected in the Bucks Stock Market.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 6-8, a disappointing start to the season even with the context of all of Milwaukee’s injuries taken into account. To take a step back and look at the whole season so far, I thought it’d be fun to go through the Bucks Stock Market returns through the first 14 games and see who’s doing well, and who needs to show more over the rest of the season.

In case you’re unaware, the Bucks Stock Market is a fictitious market run by the GSPN crew that tracks player stock “movement” following the conclusion of every game. Here’s the spreadsheet logging the game-by-game results.

A League of His Own

Giannis Antetokounmpo, +6

The Bucks Stock Market takes our expectations into account, but even factoring in the immense expectations placed upon him it should be no surprise that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s stock is higher than that of any other Buck. Giannis would surely like to have won more by now, but there’s not much he can do about the Bucks losing the minutes he’s on the bench by a staggering 17.7 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee wins the GA minutes by 6.0 points per 100, so they basically go from a good team with him playing to absolute garbage when he sits. That’s an indictment of the rest of the roster – both the players themselves, and the fact that the roster does not feature another quality defensive center with Brook Lopez out indefinitely.

Excelling in Their Roles

Grayson Allen, +4

Pat Connaughton, +4

Thanasis Antetokounmpo, +3

Grayson Allen has been a rare bright spot in Milwaukee’s dreary season. He’s averaging 16 points per game on 45/43/92 shooting splits, and although I expected more than his current 1.4 assists per game it’s hard to argue with that kind of production from a player forced into a larger offensive role than anticipated due to injuries and COVID.

Pat Connaughton has been excellent as well, averaging a career-high 11 points per game and hitting 47% of his shots and 38.5% of his threes. It’s apparent Pat has focused on his finishing this season and it’s paying off, as he’s hitting 72% of his shots in the restricted area, second on the Bucks only to Giannis among players who attempt at least one such shot per game. Connaughton hovered in the mid-to-high 60s in his previous two seasons, and judging by the eye test he’s shooting a better percentage despite more of those shots coming against tough shot contests than ever before.

Thanasis has had highs and lows this season, but for the most part has been helpful on a team that has largely needed solid play from forwards. I don’t think he’s won playoff rotational minutes or anything, but it’s been a largely positive season from TA.

Not Bad!

Rodney Hood, +1

Jordan Nwora, +1

It feels fitting that Rodney Hood and Jordan Nwora end up next to each other here, as they’re pretty similar players in many ways. Both have shown that they can get buckets but have negative aspects of their games that cost them minutes. For Hood it’s defense, as he still looks to be a step slower than he was pre-Achilles tear, and for Nwora it’s just plain consistency, the hardest thing for a young player to iron out. On the whole they have both impressed given those known limitations.

Even Keel

Khris Middleton, +0

Jrue Holiday, +0

George Hill, +0

Justin Robinson, +0

If you told me a month ago that Jrue and Khris would have the same Bucks Stock Market valuation as Justin Robinson, I would have either been totally despondent or ready to buy J-Rob’s jersey. It’s worth noting that this is different than the No Valuation that members of the Bucks can get for simply not receiving an upstock or downstock yet – all of these players have gained and lost the same amount so far.

For Khris and Jrue that comes down mostly to them both missing enough time that they both have had rust to knock off, and also not had many chances to gain ground in the Bucks Stock Market. George Hill had one good game early and has been mostly quiet since, and often finds himself close to a downstock without actually doing enough bad to earn it. Justin Robinson has also been up and down, which makes sense for a two-way player who has to log real rotation minutes. It’s a big testament to him he’s been anything but a big negative, honestly.

The Negatives

Bobby Portis, -1

Sandro Mamukelashvili, -1

Semi Ojeleye, -2

Mamu is the easiest one of these three to address: he’s a rookie two-way player who simply isn’t ready for NBA basketball yet. Some time with the team, in the training facility, and with the Herd will help.

Bobby Portis and Semi Ojeleye are both victims of Brook Lopez being out, as they’ve been needed to take big roles in the big man rotation and both have come up short in different ways. Portis’ defense has been a problem in a few different games this season, although his offense has definitely been necessary with so many scorers sitting out. Semi has provided some defense, but not enough to counter some horrendous shooting nights, plus his general knack for seeming to be in the wrong place on both ends of the floor. Hopefully more time on the team will help with that.

No Valuations Yet

Brook Lopez

Donte DiVincenzo

Georgios Kalaitzakis

Mike Budenholzer

Jon Horst

We have considered giving Brook Lopez upstocks in basically every game he’s missed this season, that’s how much his absence has been felt, but after not getting one in the Brooklyn win he hasn’t played since and thus has not gained or lost stock. Ditto for Donte except for the whole “playing any games” part. Georgios has only played garbage time, which feels like an indictment in itself given Mamu logging more than double his minutes thus far.

I have a specific reason for not issuing any upstocks or downstocks to Bud or Horst yet – it feels like they haven’t really gotten to show what they can do. In Bud’s case it’s because the team had its new starting 5 together for exactly one game, and has been forced to turn to deep bench players in every game since. In Horst’s case, it feels very obvious the only reason the Bucks aren’t using that 15th roster spot is tied to luxury tax savings, as the team could maintain flexibility by signing a player to the minimum and simply waiving them later on if the roster spot was needed for whatever reason. Still, if the team keeps losing these two will not be automatically immune to downstocks – and they aren’t automatically immune from criticism either – but to me it feels like they’ve had their hands tied to an extent all season.