How Have the Bucks' Shot Profiles Changed?
I was curious about the year-over-year changes in how Bucks' players are scoring, so I dove into the data.
This season has been WEIRD so far. The reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks sit at 6-8, 11th in the East, with players coming in and out of the lineup due to the plethora of injuries and other factors. There are also new faces on the roster who are trying to acclimate themselves to the system and playing with the returning guys. The question is, how does all of this affect how these players are performing on offense? Well, I try to share some insight on this by taking a look at shot profile data for a handful of players and walking through some reasons they look the way they do.
Note: All data is accurate through 14 games, and no means testing, such as ANOVA or t-tests, were conducted due to the dramatic sample size differences between the groups.
New guys
Grayson Allen
The Bucks have spoken about how Grayson Allen is a player that they have had their eye on for years now (please, no more tampering penalties), and it is definitely showing so far. In an increased role due to absences to guys like Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, Grayson has been a perfect fit in Mike Budenholzer’s system.
Looking at the first two categorical variables, we see the obvious: Grayson has increased his rate of three-point attempts and decreased his rate of two-point attempts. This is something that Ti and I have talked about before on the Gyro Step. Off the catch, Allen is looking to shoot rather than pump and drive (though he’s shown flashes of being a very capable interior scorer and playmaker). He’s also learned these quirks from being in an offshoot of Bud’s system in Memphis with Taylor Jenkins.
George Hill
Another player who hasn’t changed his game too much since coming (back) to Milwaukee is George Hill. Looking at his profile, we can see that the only aspect of his game that has changed dramatically this year compared to last is that he is playing on a dramatically better defense team (lol, OKC and Philly), leading his team to get more points off turnovers and on fast breaks.
Jordan Nwora
Even though Jordan Nwora isn’t a new player, he is new to significant minutes in the rotation. He’s getting better and better at scoring, showing that he is very capable of driving to rim and is even getting calls! He’s still a shooter at heart, but Nwora is quickly getting acclimated to a larger role.
Returning guys
Giannis Antetokounmpo
One thing about Giannis this season is that he seems to be slowing the game down. This is good in that he is becoming more and more comfortable as a scorer and playmaker in the half court, but it is also part of a trend that Giannis is looking less focused on asserting himself inside. This is illustrated by his scoring in the paint going down, while his attempts and scoring percentage on jumpers going up.
However, this is no reason to worry as there are multiple factors that are potentially contributing to this. First off, he’s coming off a knee injury in Eastern Conference Finals that he says he still feels to this day. Second, with Khris and Jrue in and out of the lineup, he’s had a much larger load to shoulder. Third, with Brook still (!!!) out, Giannis has had to play more physical minutes at the five which means being the signal caller on defense. Finally, we have to remember that this is the regular season. Giannis is going to take more jumpers and continue working on that part of his game during these 82 games as they ultimately do not matter.
Bobby Portis
Bobby is Bobby. Love him or hate him, he is going to do what he does and be charming while doing it.
Pat Connaughton
We’ve talked about this at length before all over GSPN, but Planet Pat is a different player coming off the championship run. It feels like he is someone who can be relied upon to hit every big shot and make the right plays. He has also displayed a greater ability to drive and finish, as showcased by his amount of threes decreasing, and his paint scoring, and twos in general, increasing.