Bucks Mailbag! Drop coverage, Khris' future, the 24th overall pick, and more fun questions answered

Plus a fun Bucks/Brewers crossover question that Pat Connaughton was born to be an answer to.

Earlier today on Twitter I opened up the mailbag, and lots of great questions came in about the Milwaukee Bucks offseason, decisions around key players including Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton, the 2022 NBA Draft, and more. Without further ado enjoy, and please subscribe for more free Bucks (and Brewers!) content!

Do you think if the Bucks were to deal Brook Lopez, they would change out of the drop scheme? I know they used it last year when he was injured, but if they know he isn’t on the roster, would they still fall in love with it? (from @XTJonJon, who added they don’t think the Bucks should do this.)

This is a great question – it’s not one I expect to be answered this offseason, as I don’t think Lopez is going anywhere. But after reckoning with not having Lopez for several months last season, this is absolutely worth thinking about as the big fella unfortunately won’t be Milwaukee’s starting center forever.

My thought is that the Bucks prefer to have drop coverage as their de facto defense, and then force other teams to push them out of it. Some of that is because Brook Lopez is so excellent at the drop, but I think in this chicken-or-the-egg conversation the drop coverage came first, and the Bucks identified Lopez as an affordable free agent who could execute it well way back when Milwaukee signed him in 2018. Mike Budenholzer had to move away from drop last season, but not by choice, and I think acquiring Serge Ibaka was basically getting Lopez insurance so the Bucks could run drop if they wanted to even without Brook healthy. That move didn’t work, but I think Milwaukee would rather find somebody else to run drop than move away from it, even in a (devastating) future scenario where Brook Lopez isn’t on the team.

Early this season, a frequent complaint was: Horst et al were idiots for thinking Brook/Bobby/Giannis/Mamu was a good enough 4/5 corps. Will 22 begin with the same group? If not, will it be meaningfully deeper? Were those early '21 complaints justified, will they be repeated? (from @S_McAnderson)

To me this question basically boils down to one specific position – a true backup center. The problem the Bucks ran into last season was that with Lopez out they had no true 5 on the roster – all of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and Sandro Mamukelashvili have some center skills, but none can anchor the paint like Lopez in Milwaukee’s drop scheme.

The Bucks got by without having such a player in all of their prior seasons with Budenholzer and Lopez outside of 2019-20, when they had Robin Lopez and never needed him in the playoffs or all that much in the regular season, as Brook played 68/73 regular season games and every playoff game. Prior to losing Brook after the first game of the 21-22 season, there was a case to be made that such a player is an unnecessary luxury.

I don’t think that case holds up anymore, after seeing Milwaukee slump defensively without having drop coverage at its disposal. To finally answer the question, I do think those complaints were justified and I do not think they will be repeated – I’d be shocked if there wasn’t a true center behind Lopez on the depth chart at the start of the next season.

What do you think the Bucks do at the end of the Middleton contract? Max him out again? Trade him? Let him walk? (from @JakeKomorowski)

I don’t think the Bucks will do any of those things, and they may not even let his contract end at all. Khris Middleton is extension eligible starting July 11, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a deal done before next season. Khris actually isn’t currently on a max contract by the way – he could’ve signed for up to $190 million and ended up inking a $178 million deal with Milwaukee last time he reached free agency.

With 10 years of NBA service time under his belt Khris is eligible to sign a gargantuan contract, but I would expect he and the Bucks reach an agreement on a deal that doesn’t pay him upwards of $50 million by the end of the contract term. The Bucks big three rightly believe they’re good enough to win more championships, and I’d be surprised if Middleton ever wanted to play anywhere else. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I’ve long thought Khris will sign a reasonable extension / new deal that keeps him in Milwaukee for the rest of his career.

Washington has a plethora of wings approaching the end of their contracts. What would it take for Horst to trade for one of them? (from @ClaySunUnion)

Funny, I just identified Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as an archetype the Bucks could use in our last Gyro Step episode, and now I get to write about him too! Unfortunately I think KCP (or Kyle Kuzma, who has another year after the coming season on his deal) would be tough to acquire, depending on Washington’s gauge on Grayson Allen at least. Allen and George Hill roughly equal either KCP or Kuzma’s salary this season, but could the Bucks get that trade done by simply attaching 2-3 of their future second round picks? If so call it in, but I’m not sure including Milwaukee’s first is worthwhile for either of those veteran wing options.

If the Wizards are open to dealing Rui Hachimura or Deni Avdija that’s a different conversation, but I would expect Washington to plan on keeping those two unless a better offer than the Bucks would want to send is on the table.

Assuming we trade Hill would you bring back Bledsoe if he gets cut and wants to come back to Milwaukee? (from @sage_alex)

This is going to be controversial on some corners of Bucks Twitter, but 100% yes. I think Eric Bledsoe is a good NBA player who the Bucks asked too much of last time he was in Milwaukee, and that he could really thrive as a super sixth man in a more limited role. Also, if Wes Matthews is retained, having Bledsoe and Matthews coming off the bench would be nightmarish for opposing perimeter players hoping for a reprieve from Jrue Holiday’s defense.

This might be a whole separate article, but do you think Trade Machines and their resulting posts are a net positive or a net negative for fans? (from @NickDlawson)

In the grand scheme of things I’m not sure they matter much at all, but I’ll lean toward positive. Are there a plethora of stupid trade machine screenshots shared pretty much constantly? Yes, but I don’t think dumb fake trades originated with the introduction of ESPN’s trade machine. Fans would be sharing hairbrained trade ideas no matter what tech was or was not available, and at least now they have to be (mostly) CBA compliant. At the end of the day, the average NBA fan isn’t going to be an expert in the CBA, and they’re going to focus on getting Dame Lilliard on their team more than building a trade that actually makes sense for both sides. I don’t think any available website can ever change that.

At what point is a draft pick no longer a viable option within the Giannis window? Picking where the Bucks always will with Giannis, the chances of drafting an immediate impact player is going to be tough and it will be better to trade the pick. Either way EJ Liddell 👀(from @riickdiculous)

I don’t think there’s any point where using a draft pick is not a viable choice for a contender, even if the Bucks seem to disagree. The Warriors won the title in 2015, when Steph Curry was 27, the same age Giannis is right now. They drafted Kevon Looney at 30 overall less than a month later and he’s been a huge asset for them ever since, and is starting for Golden State in the Finals this year.

Milwaukee needs cost-controlled players who will get better, not worse, as they stick with the Bucks. There’s a risk in using a draft pick, but there’s also a risk in signing or trading for a player, as Semi Ojeleye and Grayson Allen showed this season. The Bucks should use the pick.

Do you think they are keeping the 24th pick? Should they trade it? (from @EugeneChoursou)

I already answered the second part, but the first question here is unfortunately a different can of worms. I hope I’m wrong, but especially with Grayson Allen’s contract looking far different (read: worse) than it did earlier in the season I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Milwaukee traded the pick. I’m an optimist, so I’ll say it’s 60/40 that the Bucks trade the pick vs actually use it. Reminder: Milwaukee has not drafted (and kept) a player in the first round since Donte DiVincenzo, who is officially done with his rookie contract this summer. It’s been a while.

Anyone you particularly like with the 24th pick if they keep it? (from @nathanmarzion)

I’ve been saying I like Christian Koloko the most, but recently have taken a shine to Walker Kessler, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year who averaged a ridiculous 4.6 blocks per game last season with Auburn. Kessler is not the youngest prospect as he turns 21 in late July, but I think that actually works out well for the Bucks, who would probably rather prefer the polish of a 21-year-old over the raw upside of a 19-year-old. I previously tackled the importance of having a real backup center, and beyond just next season I think the Bucks would be smart to find a bridge to utilizing their preferred drop coverage past Brook Lopez’s time as their starter. A 7’1” shot-blocker who just won a DPOY award seems like a good candidate to do so.

Which Bucks would make the best Brewers? Which Brewers would make the best Bucks? And which Bucks would be the best brewers (of beer)? (from @EdRevelator34)

Pretty obviously Pat Connaughton would be the best Brewer as he was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles (not sure anybody knows about Pat’s baseball career, though). The question does ask for multiple Bucks, though, so I’ll include Giannis as well – imagine the lineouts he could catch at first base, or the home runs he could rob over the fence in the outfield. Also I’ll just never doubt that Giannis can do anything, and he owns part of the Brewers, so he could guarantee himself playing time.

I’ve got to go with Christian Yelich as the Brewer who would make the best Buck, as he is the only member of the team with NBA Dunk Contest experience that I can recall. I’ll give Jace Peterson the nod as the second Brewer as I think Jace Peterson can do anything, and his Wikipedia does state that he played basketball in high school.

Finally, I’m going to say Thanasis Antetokounmpo would be an excellent brewer thanks to his sheer enthusiasm and joy – drinking at TA’s brewery would be awesome.